Ties That Bind Europe Are Greater Than Threats to Its Cohesion
One thing that became clear in 2015 is that the forces binding the European Union together continue to be stronger than those threatening to blow it apart. The year saw the EU tested by twin crises that came close to destroying its two most prized achievements: a six-month standoff between a newly elected far-left Greek government and its international creditors that almost ended in Greece's ejection from the eurozone; and the arrival of more than one million migrants that threatened to trigger the collapse of the EU's Schengen passport-free travel zone.
Yet the EU has survived both tests. The Greek government dropped its demand for immediate debt relief and accepted an onerous third bailout, which was then approved by an overwhelming majority of the Greek parliament and endorsed by voters in a general election.
Meanwhile, EU leaders committed themselves at a December summit to the creation of a border-security force that could be deployed anywhere in the bloc at the behest of the European Commission, a remarkable transfer of national sovereignty designed to shore up trust in the EU's common migration rules.
The 2015 experience is worth bearing in mind at the start of a new year in which the EU's cohesion is certain to be tested again.
Some of the biggest challenges are likely to come from familiar sources. It might look as if Greece's new bailout program is proceeding relatively smoothly, but only because some of the most contentious bailout criteria—including reforms to pensions and subsidies for farmers—have been deferred to avoid a confrontation for which neither Greece nor its creditors currently has any appetite.
The battle lines are already being drawn ahead of the first review of the bailout program, which is due to start imminently and which eurozone governments have promised will pave the way for a restructuring of Greece's debt. The flashpoint is the participation of the International Monetary Fund, which the eurozone insists is a legal and political necessity, but which Athens is resisting because it knows that the IMF will drive a hard bargain.
Similarly, the migration crisis is sure to continue in 2016, even if the numbers braving the sea-crossing into Greece has dwindled since the onset of winter. Sophisticated people-smuggling operations are unlikely to face a shortage of new customers among the millions of refugees from the Syrian crisis currently living in camps in Turkey and Lebanon or the many millions in Africa and Asia who dream of a better life in Europe. That is bound to put the EU's new border-security measures to the test, while also once again challenging the limits of political cohesion.
But the EU will also face new hurdles in 2016. Chief among those is a British referendum on whether to remain part of the club, widely expected to be held in June of July. Just as a Greek exit or "Grexit" from the eurozone in 2015 would have raised doubts about the survival of the single currency, a "Brexit" from the EU in 2016 would be a devastating blow to the European integration project, weakening the continent's ability to work together to address common challenges and potentially setting in train a wider unraveling of the elaborately constructed arrangements and delicate compromises that have underpinned Europe's security and prosperity for half a century.
Meanwhile political risks are rising across the EU. A fragile minority Socialist government backed by two far-left parties took office in Portugal at the end of last year on a promise to reverse austerity. Spain may be forced back to the polls later this year following an inconclusive election in December that offered little prospect of a stable government. Early in 2016, it will be the Irish government's turn to face the verdict of voters. And while France's mainstream parties saw off the National Front threat in December's regional elections, the far right remains a potent electoral force in Northern Europe.
Even so, the best bet must be that the EU will hang together again in 2016, if only out of fear of hanging separately. European citizens may chafe against what they regard as an increasingly over-mighty EU, but their governments will continue to look to Brussels for solutions to crises that they are too weak to manage alone. Even the reluctant British are ultimately likely to opt for the security of continued membership of a club that allows them to shape the continent's responses to common challenges.
There is one important caveat. The EU's ability to withstand the two great crises of 2015 hinged in large part on the European Central Bank's willingness to launch a vast government bond-buying program, which limited contagion from the Greek crisis and helped engineer a modest cyclical recovery in the eurozone, and on Germany's willingness to provide sanctuary to more than a million refugees. The challenge for EU governments in 2016 is to prepare for the inevitable day when these two shock absorbers are no longer available.
Source: Ties That Bind Europe Are Greater Than Threats to Its Cohesion
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